Since July 2022, the BfG has been publishing a probability-based 6-week forecast of the discharge for navigation-relevant gauges on the Rhine. The 6-week forecast for the Rhine gauges in Kaub, Cologne and Duisburg-Ruhrort is provided via ELWIS in the same way as the 4-day low and mean water forecast. The 6-week forecast is updated twice a week (Tuesdays and Fridays), in the late morning. The 6-week forecast is based on current measurements of the levels in the Rhine catchment area and information from over 1000 weather stations. The forecast is calculated on the basis of, among other things, the ENS extended ensemble forecasts of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EZMWF / ECMWF). Based on this extensive real-time data, the BfG uses a hydrological model to determine an ensemble of runoff forecasts for the next 6 weeks. On this basis, in combination with statistical methods, probability distributions of weekly mean values for the trend forecast are determined at the Rhine gauges mentioned above. This prediction is presented as a boxplot. More detailed explanations can be found at https://www.bafg.de/DE/08_Ref/M2/04_Vorhersagen/6wRheinElbe/6w_node.html. The file name of the boxplot quantiles corresponds to the following scheme: 6Wochen_Abfluss_QuansBox.csv, In addition, a 4-class forecast is published, which uses pie charts to show whether the coming weeks will tend to be lower or higher than the long-term mean outflows are predicted. The file name of the limits and probabilities of the pie charts corresponds to the following scheme: 6weeks_outflow_pie.csv. The master data of the forecast levels (e.g. coordinates) can be accessed via PEGELONLINE https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/.
